Yesterday when I made a remark about Axl Rose suing the Chinese Democracy leaker for emotional turmoil, I merely thought I was joking. As it turns out, the future financial well being of Kevin Cogill may depend on whether Guns N' Roses is upset enough over the leak to pursue civil copyright infringement charges. Wired's Listening Post blog reports that while Cogill's chances of facing extensive jail time or fines from the criminal charges are minimal, in terms of a civil case filed by Rose and the band, he could face a much more likely sentencing of up to $1.3 million in damages.
According to entertainment lawyer Howard Rubin, "The first release is always the one that's going to get the most profit for the person who owns the copyright. To take that first opportunity from someone is more serious, and is usually pursued criminally to try to prevent that (from happening again)." Some estimate that the damages from the leak could be as much as $150,000 per song, and with 9 songs leaked, the $1.3 million figure is a ballpark estimate.
The question of Guns N' Roses end is what the fan reaction we'll be if they pursue civil charges. On the one hand, they don't want to be perceived as "the next Metallica" and sticklers of a policy unpopular with fans. On the other hand, the band did suffer significant financial damages from the leak, and it's entirely within Guns N' Roses' rights to pursue legal action.
My guess is the band will determine that the bad publicity from a lawsuit would not be enough to make up for the loss in revenue, and will go through with the civil case. Of course, timing will everything, and whether or not Chinese Democracy is well-received may be a factor. Certainly it would look much worse to bankrupt someone for leaking a bad album that people waiting nearly 20 years to see.
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I'm going to download this album illegally just to spite the band. f em.